Data as of 2026-09-09US market
Summary
Screened 12 undervalued US stocks on September 9, 2026; PYPL, CVS, ADSK, DIS, and WDC offer the best fundamental resilience, margin expansion, and valuation discounts for a 6 to 18 month horizon.
Screening weights
Fundamental improvement30%
Candidate comparison
| Rank | Ticker | Sector | 3M return | Revenue YoY | OPM Δ | FCF | Score |
|---|
| 1 | PayPal Holdings | Fintech | -5.4% | +7.8% | +1.4%p | Positive | 8.8 |
| 2 | CVS Health | Healthcare | -6.2% | +7.3% | +1.0%p | Positive | 8.6 |
| 3 | Autodesk | Design Software | -4.5% | +16.0% | +2.0%p | Positive | 8.4 |
| 4 | Walt Disney | Entertainment | -2.8% | +7.0% | +1.9%p | Positive | 8.2 |
| 5 | Western Digital | Storage Hardware | -7.5% | +23.8% | +4.3%p | Positive | 8.1 |
| 6 | NIKE | Consumer | -11.5% | +1.5% | +0.8%p | Positive | 8.0 |
| 7 | Adobe | Software | -6.2% | +10.6% | +1.2%p | Positive | 7.9 |
| 8 | Salesforce | Cloud CRM | -7.1% | +8.4% | +2.4%p | Positive | 7.8 |
| 9 | DexCom | MedTech | -21.2% | +15.3% | +1.8%p | Positive | 7.6 |
| 10 | Starbucks | Restaurants | -4.5% | +2.2% | +0.4%p | Positive | 7.4 |
| 11 | Peloton | Fitness | -21.0% | +2.1% | +5.6%p | Positive | 7.1 |
| 12 | Intel | Semiconductors | -26.0% | -2.8% | -3.4%p | Negative | 6.4 |
Screened names (observations)
Observation
Trading at ~13x Forward P/E despite operational turnaround: TMD growth +8% YoY, Fastlane checkout lifting conversions by 80%, and $5B+ buybacks retiring >7% of shares annually.
Catalysts to watch
- Fastlane enterprise scaling across Shopify and global merchants
- Venmo monetization via debit and merchant pay
- Massive annual share buybacks
Risks
- Competition from Stripe and Apple Pay
- Macro e-commerce softness
Framework exit signals
- TMD dollar growth turns negative YoY
- Non-GAAP OPM falls below 16.5%
Metrics to watch
- TMD growth YoY
- Active accounts transaction volume
Observation
Deep value at 11.5x forward P/E with structural margin turnaround underway. Q2 Medical Benefit Ratio improved 250 bps YoY to 87.4% with full-year CFFO reaffirmed at $11.5B+.
Catalysts to watch
- Medicare Advantage margin recovery roadmap
- Aetna Claims Assist AI operational savings
- MinuteClinic care expansion
Risks
- Medical cost utilization spikes in H2 2026
- PBM regulatory scrutiny
Framework exit signals
- MBR exceeds 89.5% for two consecutive quarters
- Operating margins compress >100 bps YoY
Metrics to watch
- Health Care Benefits MBR
- Operating cash flows
Observation
High-barrier AEC software monopoly with 90%+ gross margins and 41% operating margins, trading at a 25% discount to historical multiples (~20.5x forward P/E).
Catalysts to watch
- Global completion of direct agency transaction model
- AI design agents rollout across Forma and Fusion
- MaintainX operational cross-selling
Risks
- Transition sales cycle elongation
- Commercial construction macro softness
Framework exit signals
- Billings growth falls below +5.0% YoY
- cRPO growth drops below 6.0% YoY
Metrics to watch
- cRPO growth rate
- Free cash flow conversion
Observation
DTC streaming profitability inflecting (+64% YoY operating income) and high-barrier Experiences generating $10B+ quarterly cash flow, funding $9B+ in buybacks.
Catalysts to watch
- DTC streaming operating margin expansion toward 10%+
- Standalone flagship ESPN streaming launch
- $9B+ FY2026 share repurchases
Risks
- Linear TV cord-cutting
- Domestic theme park discretionary spending moderation
Framework exit signals
- DTC relapses into operating losses
- Experiences revenue growth drops below 2% YoY
Metrics to watch
- DTC streaming operating income
- Theme park per-capita spending
Observation
Surging AI data center nearline HDD demand (28TB-32TB UltraSMR) driving +24% revenue and 15.6% OPM. Planned tax-free Flash spin-off will unlock sum-of-the-parts discount.
Catalysts to watch
- Tax-free separation into standalone Flash and HDD companies
- Hyperscaler HDD multi-quarter margin expansion
- Enterprise SSD AI storage demand inflection
Risks
- Cyclical NAND pricing swings
- Separation execution delay
Framework exit signals
- HDD gross margin drops below 28%
- Cancellation of corporate spin-off
Metrics to watch
- Cloud HDD exabyte shipments
- Blended Flash ASP
AlphaSignal Research: Top 5 Undervalued US Common Stocks (Sep 9, 2026)
1. Executive Summary
Screened 12 US equities with underperforming 3-month share price returns despite expanding quarterly operating profitability, healthy revenue growth, and strong free cash flow. Finalized the Top 5 Undervalued US Stocks offering asymmetric upside over a 6 to 18 month horizon.
2. Candidate Comparison Table
- PYPL (Score: 8.8) | FinTech | 3M Return: -5.4% | Rev Growth: +7.8% | OPM Change: +1.4%p | FCF: Positive
- CVS (Score: 8.6) | Healthcare | 3M Return: -6.2% | Rev Growth: +7.3% | OPM Change: +1.0%p | FCF: Positive
- ADSK (Score: 8.4) | Design Software | 3M Return: -4.5% | Rev Growth: +16.0% | OPM Change: +2.0%p | FCF: Positive
- DIS (Score: 8.2) | Entertainment | 3M Return: -2.8% | Rev Growth: +7.0% | OPM Change: +1.9%p | FCF: Positive
- WDC (Score: 8.1) | Storage Hardware | 3M Return: -7.5% | Rev Growth: +23.8% | OPM Change: +4.3%p | FCF: Positive
- NKE (Score: 8.0) | 7. ADBE (Score: 7.9) | 8. CRM (Score: 7.8) | 9. DXCM (Score: 7.6) | 10. SBUX (Score: 7.4) | 11. PTON (Score: 7.1) | 12. INTC (Score: 6.4)
3. Top 5 Detailed Breakdown
- PYPL (8.8): P/E ~13x, TMD +8% YoY, Fastlane checkout lifting conversions by 80%, retiring >7% of float via buybacks.
- CVS (8.6): P/E ~11.5x, MBR improved 250 bps YoY to 87.4%, CFFO guidance confirmed at $11.5B+.
- ADSK (8.4): P/E ~20.5x, 90%+ gross margins and 41% Non-GAAP OPM, direct agency model transition complete.
- DIS (8.2): P/E ~18.2x, DTC streaming profitable (+64% YoY operating income), $9B+ FY26 buyback execution.
- WDC (8.1): P/E ~11.8x, Nearline AI HDD demand surging (+24% rev, 15.6% OPM), tax-free Flash spin-off catalyst.
4. Conclusion
- Highest Conviction: PYPL
- Best Risk/Reward: CVS
- Most Defensive: ADSK
- Highest Structural Catalyst: WDC
- Watchlist: NKE, ADBE, CRM